State Primary Election Results and Analysis
In four months, voters will choose who leads California for the next four years. This article will share the results and the choices on the November ballot and then provide five takeaways from the state-wide elections.
Governor
A field of 61 candidates competed in the primary election. Democrat Xavier Becerra (former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and CA Attorney General) took the top spot, and will face off against Republican political commentator Steve Hilton, who narrowly beat out progressive billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer for second place.
Xavier Becerra (D): 28.1% (Advanced)
Steve Hilton (R): 24.7% (Advanced)
Tom Steyer (D): 22.8%
Chad Bianco (R): 10.2%
Katie Porter (D): 4.4%
Matt Mahan (D): 3.5%
Attorney General
Incumbent Democrat Rob Bonta secured a dominant lead and will move to the general election against Republican challenger Michael E. Gates.
Rob Bonta (D)*: 56.6% (Advanced)
Michael E. Gates (R): 38.0% (Advanced)
Insurance Commissioner
With current Commissioner Ricardo Lara termed out, the open seat triggered a competitive split. Two Democrats captured the top two slots, ensuring a Democrat-on-Democrat battle in November.
Jane Kim (D): 27.4% (Advanced)
Ben Allen (D): 19.4% (Advanced)
Stacy A. Korsgaden (R): 15.5%
State Treasurer
Democrat Eleni Kounalakis comfortably advanced to the general election, where she will face Republican challenger Jennifer Hawks.
Eleni Kounalakis (D): 36.7% (Advanced)
Jennifer Hawks (R): 24.0% (Advanced)
Anna M. Caballero (D): 16.4%
Secretary of State
Incumbent Shirley N. Weber (D) (58.7%) will face Don Wagner (R) (36.7%).
State Controller
Incumbent Malia M. Cohen (D) (56.8%) will face Herb W. Morgan (R) (37.5%).
Takeaways from the State Elections
Analysts tracking the numbers from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and CalMattershave noted several distinct messages from primary election voters.
Historic Surge in Turnout
Primary elections in non-presidential midterm years usually draw around 25% of the voting population. Due to highly competitive open seats (like the 61-candidate gubernatorial race) and massive interest in newly redrawn congressional districts following the passage of Proposition 50, turnout rose significantly, nearly 34% of the eligible voting population, making it the highest turnout for a midterm primary in California since 1982.
· Affordability and Inflation Dominated the Mood
Pre-election surveys and post-election data showed that 70% of voters felt their personal finances were lagging behind inflation. This economic anxiety made voters highly practical; they prioritized candidates who addressed rising costs and everyday infrastructure over purely ideological battles.
· Voters Favored Establishment Candidates Over Big Money
Many progressive and establishment Democrats were facing fierce challenges from wealthy, self-funded candidates. Ultimately, voters rejected the idea that a campaign could be bought. In the governor's race, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer spent a record-setting, nearly a quarter billion dollars of his own money on his campaign, only to be shut out of the top two spots by career politician Xavier Becerra.Local municipal and legislative races saw a similar trend, where multi-million-dollar self-funded campaigns repeatedly flunked at the ballot box.
· Voters Stayed in Traditional Partisan Lanes
Despite early Democratic anxiety that a split vote among a crowded field of progressive candidates might allow two Republicans to lock up the general election for governor, voters naturally sorted themselves out. They put a top Democrat (Becerra) and a top Republican (Hilton) into the November general election, mirroring historical, two-party voting trends.
· Last-Minute Decision-Making
Voters showed a strong inclination to hold onto their mail-in ballots until the absolute last minute. Election officials reported a massive deluge of over 800,000 ballots turned in on the day before the election alone. This hesitation was attributed to voters meticulously weighing their options in highly crowded fields before committing and wondering if more scandals might surface.
The question that remains is what issues and concerns will be on voters’ minds in November.
By Debra Shrout